Cast your mind back to February. The bp share price was sitting around £4.60. The Iran conflict hadn’t started. The share price series I’d been writing felt a little speculative.
Here’s a thought experiment. Imagine someone had walked up to you in February and said: “In three months’ time, I can guarantee you £5.50 per share. Take it or leave it.”
Most people would have taken it.
Almost nobody was expecting 20% growth in three months. And yet here we are. The share price hit £5 in early March, and as I write this it’s sitting at around £5.50.
So why does it feel so hard to act now that it’s actually happened?
The question that tends to paralyse people
“What if it goes higher?”
It’s a reasonable question. The oil price is elevated. bp’s Q1 2026 results beat expectations, and the company has been upgraded to Buy by analysts at Argus. The direction of travel looks positive. Maybe £6 is around the corner.
Maybe. Nobody knows. That’s the point.
Here is the more useful question. If the share price dropped back to £4.50, how would that feel? Not in theory. Actually. Would it change anything material about your finances, your plans, your retirement?
And if it went to £6, what would you actually do differently with that extra money?
That gap, between what a fall costs you and what a rise gains you, tells you almost everything you need to know about whether holding or selling is right for you.
A simple framework for thinking about it
We use a straightforward test with clients who are sitting on a meaningful bp holding (the wider question is covered in What Should I do With my bp Shares?). It goes like this.
If you can’t afford for the price to halve, and you don’t need it to double, then you’re carrying more risk than you’re being paid for.
It sounds obvious. It rarely feels obvious when you’re in it, because the share price is rising and everything feels fine. But concentration risk doesn’t go away just because the price is going up. If anything, a higher price raises the stakes.
Most of the people we work with have accumulated bp shares over years. The holding has grown quietly in the background. At £4.60 it might have felt like a problem for later. At £5.50, the same number of shares represents meaningfully more money. The question hasn’t changed. The numbers have.
This is not a prediction
I’m not saying the share price is going to fall. I have no idea. Nobody does. The Iran situation could fully resolve, oil could drop, and bp could pull back. Or the conflict could escalate, oil could push toward $150 a barrel, and the price could keep rising. Both are plausible. As are many other factors in between.
What I am saying is that the reason to review your position at £5.50 is the same reason it was worth reviewing at £5. The price has risen. The concentration may have grown. The plan you had at £4.60 deserves a fresh look.
The February version of you had the right idea
That imaginary person who would have taken £5.50 guaranteed in February? They were thinking clearly. They were separating what they knew (their financial needs, their plan, their risk tolerance) from what they didn’t know (where the share price was going next).
Nothing about that calculation changes just because the offer isn’t guaranteed anymore. In fact, the only thing that’s changed is that the price is higher than most people expected it to be.
Sometimes the right move is to sit tight. Sometimes it’s to take some chips off the table. The right answer depends entirely on your situation. But the starting point is the same: be honest about what you actually need the money to do, and whether the risk you’re carrying matches that.
Who can you think of that’s watching the bp share price and putting off the decision? Share this with them.
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This is for educational purposes only. It’s not personal financial advice and we’re not recommending any specific course of action. Everyone’s situation is different, and decisions about bp shareholdings depend on individual circumstances. You should seek professional financial advice before making any decisions.
While we have extensive experience helping bp employees and alumni optimise their benefits, Emery Little operates independently and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the bp group, including BP Pension Trustees Limited, on behalf of the BP Pension Fund. This allows us to provide objective, independent guidance focused solely on your best interests.
