The World Cup quarter finals kick off today, France against Morocco tonight, and the remaining teams already look nothing like anyone predicted back in May. Brazil are out. Germany are out. So are all three host nations, the US, Mexico and Canada, each eliminated in the round of 16. It’s the first time in the tournament’s history that Brazil and Germany have both missed the quarter finals at the same time.
Wimbledon has been telling a similar story. Yesterday, Arthur Fery, a British wildcard ranked outside the world’s top 100, beat ninth seed Flavio Cobolli to reach his first ever Grand Slam semi final, and he’s now one of only two British wildcards to do that in the Open Era. Zverev, Djokovic and Sinner are all still in the draw too, so the top seeds haven’t collapsed across the board. But a top seeding doesn’t guarantee a match goes the way it’s supposed to.
None of this is really about sport. It’s about the gap between reputation and current reality, and how often we forget the two aren’t the same thing. We do this constantly, and not just with teams and players. We assume the biggest name in the room is the safest bet, that the longest serving supplier must be the best one, that the person with the loudest track record is the one worth backing. Sometimes that’s true. Often it’s just history doing the talking, not the present moment.
Brazil, Germany and Cobolli didn’t suddenly get worse; they ran into sides that were sharper, hungrier and better prepared, right now, this week, regardless of what any of them did in previous years.
It’s a useful thing to keep in mind. “Always has been” and “still is” aren’t the same claim, whether you’re picking a football team, a tennis player or anything else you’ve stopped questioning because it’s always been that way.
Enjoy the rest of the quarter finals. We’ll see who’s still standing next time. And yes, obviously, it’s coming home this time. Come on England.
